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The global climate crisis has reached a critical juncture, with scientific evidence underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive action to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Despite overall progress and commitments to climate action across the globe, these fall short of what is needed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5ºC, with current plans and policies on track for 2.6 - 3.1ºC of warming. One of the key issues of the road to Belém will be to keep track of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be submitted in this third round (aka NDCs 3.0).
A further, maybe even more critical issue, is to make sure that such renewed commitments point to key implementation pathways and financing mechanisms that allow their translation into effective actions and policies. The global energy transition remains uneven, with disparities in technological, financial, and policy capabilities across regions. Many nations remain reliant on carbon-intensive energy sources despite the advent of renewables, and the impacts of geopolitical turmoil on energy security have created uncertainties regarding the implementation of the NDCs and other climate targets. In practice, there is already a significant gap between ambitions and their concrete implementation, partially due to the lack of clear transition frameworks tailored to national, regional and sectoral contexts.
The current proposal aims to address this implementation gap by producing knowledge, promoting high-level discussions and advocating for strategic measures to address this challenge in international forums. It also intends to demonstrate that the energy transition can be a strategic opportunity for socioeconomic development through the production and manufacturing of low-carbon products and energy sources. It will take place within the broader framework of CEBRI’s COP30 project, which aims to the Brazilian Presidency and mobilize private and subnational actors to engage proactively in the implementation of the new cycle of NDCs, at COP30 and beyond.
CEBRI, as one of the leading think tanks in Latin America with a strong track record on energy transition and climate change, is well positioned to lead such discussions as a platform capable of congregating diverse stakeholders and helping to build bridges between 1) multiple sectors (civil society, private and public actors) and 2) different countries - having ongoing projects and partnerships with actors across all continents. It also has past and ongoing work on NetZero scenarios for Brazil with sectoral roaps and quantified macroeconomic outputs, which are useful quantitative references.